French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the lower house of parliament yesterday and called for snap legislative elections, with the first round taking place on June 30. The decision comes after the French far-right party National Rally, or RN, decimated Macron’s Renaissance party in European parliamentary elections. (New York Times)
The EU election results in France were not particularly surprising. The RN has for more than a decade fared better in European parliamentary elections than in French national elections. In part, that’s because of the different electoral systems—the European Parliament uses direct proportional representation, while France’s parliament uses single-member constituencies and a two-round system. Turnout is also lower in EU elections, and voters are more often driven by anti-incumbent and anti-EU grievances, which helps the far right.
In fact, this is the third time in a row that the RN has finished in first place in EU elections in France. The prior two wins, though, were much narrower. In 2019, the RN finished with the same number of seats in the European Parliament as Macron’s party. This time, its victory was decisive, winning more than double the number of seats, largely at the French president’s expense.
What is surprising is that Macron would call for snap elections, but it’s also consistent with the logic of his presidency. Macron’s calling card has been to face political threats head on. That could be seen as far back as 2018, when he responded to the Yellow Vest protest movement by holding town hall meetings around the country to respond directly and in person to local grievances, and as recently as last month, when he flew to New Caledonia after several days of violent unrest there.
In some respects, these responses have earned Macron a well-deserved reputation of political courage. But, as underscored by the crisis in New Caledonia, the issues he has faced down are also usually of his own making, in large part because Macron’s leadership style is characterized by top-down decision-making, centralized in his own hands and involving minimal dialogue and consultation. He more often challenges than retreats, making him a polarizing and alienating figure and surprisingly unpopular for a political maverick who has handily won two elections, albeit against the even more polarizing and alienating Marine Le Pen.
In this case, Macron’s challenge is to the French voters who clearly disavowed him in favor of the RN in EU elections. They may have done so in a low-stakes vote for the distant European Parliament, the weakest institution in the EU. But will they do so in national elections, which have much more direct and immediate consequences for the French electorate?
Clearly, it’s a bet that Macron feels he can afford to make—his coalition is already a minority government in parliament, and for the past two years he has had to rely on one-off majorities cobbled together to pass policies on a case-by-case basis.